Price + timeline
YES probability • updated 3:10:05 AM
Apr 21May 14Jun 6
Auto-refreshes every 4 seconds and after completed trades.
Public market
Will California enact a single-payer universal health-care law by June 5, 2026?
Status: Open for trading
Closes Jun 5, 2026, 3:00 PM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community
Market strip
Live implied odds
YES 50.0%
NO 50.0%
Pool shares0
YES shares0
NO shares0
Liquidity parameter100
Community resolve
YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00
Resolution window ends: Not set
Challenge window ends: Not set
Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: N/A
Challenges: 0 total, 0 open
If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.
Final outcome is only set by a human when there is a tie or at least one valid challenge.
Market context
Resolves based on California enacting a law that establishes a statewide single-payer universal health-care system (one public program as the primary payer for most medically necessary services for residents). Passage must be by both houses and signed by the Governor (or become law without signature) by the deadline. Study bills, resolutions, limited-pilot programs, or funding-only measures do not qualify.
Tags: california, health-policy, single-payer, legislation, 2026
Risk flags: definition-ambiguity, procedural-risk, legal-challenge-risk
Resolution details
Resolves YES if: By June 5, 2026, a bill creating a statewide single-payer universal health-care system is passed by both chambers and is signed by the Governor or becomes law without signature, as shown on official state sites.
Resolves NO if: No such law is enacted by the deadline (including if a bill passes only one chamber, is vetoed without override by the deadline, or only a ballot measure referral is made).
Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge
Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.
Evidence rules: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Dispute rules: Community vote window is fixed at 24 hours after close. Challenge window is fixed at 24 hours after provisional outcome.