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Will the U.S. headline CPI 12-month change for February 2026 be at or below 3.0%?

Status: Finalized

Closes Mar 11, 2026, 12:00 PM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community

Price + timeline

YES probability • updated 1:47:18 PM

0%25%50%75%100%
Feb 20Mar 2Mar 12

Auto-refreshes every 4 seconds and after completed trades.

Market strip

Live implied odds

YES 50.0%

NO 50.0%

Pool shares0

YES shares0

NO shares0

Liquidity parameter100

Community resolve

YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00

Resolution window ends: Mar 12, 2026, 12:00 PM

Challenge window ends: Not set

Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: Void

Challenges: 0 total, 0 open

If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.

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Resolution evidence

Status: Finalized

Platform evidence policy: Primary evidence is the BLS CPI news release and series page. Use the value as published on release; no adjustments or alternative series. If the release webpage is temporarily inaccessible, archived copies or BLS PDF are acceptable.

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Evidence feed

No evidence has been submitted yet.

Market context

Resolves using the 12-month percent change for All items, U.S. city average, CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0) as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the “Consumer Price Index — February 2026” news release. Use the value exactly as published (one decimal place).

Created: Feb 20, 2026, 12:56 AM

Closes: Mar 11, 2026, 12:00 PM

Expected resolution: Mar 12, 2026, 2:00 PM

Fee: 0.50%

Resolver stake cap: $1.00

Maker rake paid: $0.00

Tags: cpi, inflation, bls, macro, united-states

Risk flags: datarevisionrisk, schedulechangepossible, officialsourcelatency, timezonesensitivity

Resolution details

Resolves YES if: The BLS-published 12-month percent change (CPI-U, All items, not seasonally adjusted) for February 2026 is less than or equal to 3.0%.

Resolves NO if: The published value is greater than 3.0%.

Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge

Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.

Evidence rules: Primary evidence is the BLS CPI news release and series page. Use the value as published on release; no adjustments or alternative series. If the release webpage is temporarily inaccessible, archived copies or BLS PDF are acceptable.

Dispute rules: Only disputes citing the official BLS February 2026 CPI news release or the CUUR0000SA0 series page will be considered. Media reports or secondary aggregators are not grounds for dispute.

Official and supporting sources