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Will the United States Federal Reserve announce a 0.25% interest rate increase or higher at its March 2026 meeting?

Status: Finalized

Closes Mar 20, 2026, 12:00 AM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community

Price + timeline

YES probability • updated 1:46:13 PM

0%25%50%75%100%
Feb 20Mar 6Mar 20

Auto-refreshes every 4 seconds and after completed trades.

Market strip

Live implied odds

YES 50.0%

NO 50.0%

Pool shares0

YES shares0

NO shares0

Liquidity parameter100

Community resolve

YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00

Resolution window ends: Mar 21, 2026, 12:00 AM

Challenge window ends: Not set

Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: Void

Challenges: 0 total, 0 open

If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.

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Resolution evidence

Status: Finalized

Platform evidence policy: Official statement from the Federal Reserve published on its website (https://www.federalreserve.gov) is primary evidence.

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Evidence feed

No evidence has been submitted yet.

Market context

This market resolves YES if the Federal Reserve announces an increase of at least 0.25% in the benchmark interest rate during its March 2026 meeting. It resolves NO if no such increase is announced.

Created: Feb 20, 2026, 12:19 AM

Closes: Mar 20, 2026, 12:00 AM

Expected resolution: Mar 20, 2026, 11:59 PM

Fee: 0.50%

Resolver stake cap: $1.00

Maker rake paid: $0.00

Tags: finance, us-macro, economy, interest-rates

Risk flags: policy-change, macro

Resolution details

Resolves YES if: The Fed announces an increase of 0.25% or more on the federal funds target rate in the March 2026 meeting statement.

Resolves NO if: The Fed announces no change or a decrease in rates or an increase below 0.25% at that meeting.

Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge

Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.

Evidence rules: Official statement from the Federal Reserve published on its website (https://www.federalreserve.gov) is primary evidence.

Dispute rules: Disputes resolved by referencing the official Federal Reserve rate announcement published on the Fed's website.

Official and supporting sources