Price + timeline
YES probability • updated 1:47:37 PM
Feb 26Mar 16Apr 3
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Public market
Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted) for March 2026 be at or below 4.0% in the initial BLS release?
Status: Finalized
Closes Apr 3, 2026, 12:30 PM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community
Market strip
Live implied odds
YES 50.0%
NO 50.0%
Pool shares0
YES shares0
NO shares0
Liquidity parameter100
Community resolve
YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00
Resolution window ends: Apr 4, 2026, 12:30 PM
Challenge window ends: Not set
Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: Void
Challenges: 0 total, 0 open
If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.
Resolution evidence
Status: Finalized
Platform evidence policy: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Evidence feed
No evidence has been submitted yet.
Market context
Resolves using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation news release for March 2026. The metric is the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) for March 2026 as first published on release day (typically shown in the news release text and in Table A-1). Later revisions are ignored. “At or below 4.0%” includes exactly 4.0%.
Tags: bls, unemployment-rate, u-3, labor-market, march-2026
Risk flags: datarevision
Resolution details
Resolves YES if: The initial seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for March 2026 is ≤ 4.0%.
Resolves NO if: The initial seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for March 2026 is > 4.0%.
Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge
Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.
Evidence rules: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Dispute rules: Community vote window is fixed at 24 hours after close. Challenge window is fixed at 24 hours after provisional outcome.