Price + timeline
YES probability • updated 3:10:03 AM
Apr 28May 7May 15
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Public market
Will the U.S. 10‑year Treasury constant maturity yield (Federal Reserve H.15) close strictly above 4.50% on 2026-05-15?
Status: Finalized: VOID
Closes May 15, 2026, 8:00 PM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community
Market strip
Live implied odds
YES 50.0%
NO 50.0%
Pool shares0
YES shares0
NO shares0
Liquidity parameter100
Community resolve
YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00
Resolution window ends: May 16, 2026, 8:00 PM
Challenge window ends: Not set
Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: Void
Challenges: 0 total, 0 open
If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.
Resolution evidence
Status: Finalized
Platform evidence policy: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Evidence feed
No evidence has been submitted yet.
Market context
Resolves using the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 daily series for the 10‑Year Treasury constant maturity (DGS10). Yes if the H.15 value for 2026‑05‑15 is greater than 4.50 percent. If no H.15 value is published for that date, resolves No.
Tags: treasuries, interest-rates, h15, dgs10, bond-yields
Risk flags: datarevision, holidayschedule
Resolution details
Resolves YES if: The H.15 DGS10 series shows a value > 4.50% for 2026‑05‑15.
Resolves NO if: The DGS10 value is ≤ 4.50% for 2026‑05‑15, or the FRB does not publish a value for that date.
Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge
Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.
Evidence rules: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Dispute rules: Community vote window is fixed at 24 hours after close. Challenge window is fixed at 24 hours after provisional outcome.