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Will U.S. initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending March 28, 2026 exceed 250,000 in the first DOL release?

Status: Finalized

Closes Apr 2, 2026, 12:30 PM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community

Price + timeline

YES probability • updated 1:47:07 PM

0%25%50%75%100%
Feb 26Mar 16Apr 2

Auto-refreshes every 4 seconds and after completed trades.

Market strip

Live implied odds

YES 50.0%

NO 50.0%

Pool shares0

YES shares0

NO shares0

Liquidity parameter100

Community resolve

YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00

Resolution window ends: Apr 3, 2026, 12:30 PM

Challenge window ends: Not set

Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: Void

Challenges: 0 total, 0 open

If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.

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Resolution evidence

Status: Finalized

Platform evidence policy: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.

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Evidence feed

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Market context

Resolves using the U.S. Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims news release covering the week ending 2026-03-28. The metric is seasonally adjusted Initial Claims as first reported on or about 2026-04-02. “Exceed 250,000” means strictly greater than 250,000. Later revisions are ignored.

Created: Feb 26, 2026, 11:54 PM

Closes: Apr 2, 2026, 12:30 PM

Expected resolution: Apr 2, 2026, 12:45 PM

Fee: 0.50%

Resolver stake cap: $1.00

Maker rake paid: $0.00

Tags: department-of-labor, initial-claims, jobless-claims, weekly-data, march-2026

Risk flags: datarevision

Resolution details

Resolves YES if: The initial seasonally adjusted Initial Claims for the week ending 2026-03-28 is > 250,000.

Resolves NO if: The initial seasonally adjusted Initial Claims for the week ending 2026-03-28 is ≤ 250,000.

Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge

Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.

Evidence rules: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.

Dispute rules: Community vote window is fixed at 24 hours after close. Challenge window is fixed at 24 hours after provisional outcome.

Official and supporting sources