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YES probability • updated 1:45:44 PM
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Public market
Will the U.S. PCE price index 12-month change for February 2026 be at or below 2.5% in the initial BEA release?
Status: Finalized
Closes Mar 27, 2026, 12:30 PM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community
Market strip
Live implied odds
YES 50.0%
NO 50.0%
Pool shares0
YES shares0
NO shares0
Liquidity parameter100
Community resolve
YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00
Resolution window ends: Mar 28, 2026, 12:30 PM
Challenge window ends: Not set
Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: Void
Challenges: 0 total, 0 open
If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.
Resolution evidence
Status: Finalized
Platform evidence policy: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Evidence feed
No evidence has been submitted yet.
Market context
Resolves using the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Personal Income and Outlays news release for February 2026. The metric is the 12‑month percent change in the headline PCE price index (not core), as first published in the release text/tables (e.g., Table 11). “At or below 2.5%” includes exactly 2.5%. Later revisions are ignored.
Tags: bea, pce-inflation, yoy, february-2026, inflation
Risk flags: datarevision, releasetimingvariance
Resolution details
Resolves YES if: The initial BEA-reported 12‑month change in the headline PCE price index for February 2026 is ≤ 2.5%.
Resolves NO if: The initial BEA-reported 12‑month change in the headline PCE price index for February 2026 is > 2.5%.
Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge
Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.
Evidence rules: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Dispute rules: Community vote window is fixed at 24 hours after close. Challenge window is fixed at 24 hours after provisional outcome.