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Will UK headline CPI 12-month inflation for February 2026 be at or below 3.0%?

Status: Finalized

Closes Mar 18, 2026, 6:00 AM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community

Price + timeline

YES probability • updated 1:47:07 PM

0%25%50%75%100%
Feb 20Mar 5Mar 18

Auto-refreshes every 4 seconds and after completed trades.

Market strip

Live implied odds

YES 50.0%

NO 50.0%

Pool shares0

YES shares0

NO shares0

Liquidity parameter100

Community resolve

YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00

Resolution window ends: Mar 19, 2026, 6:00 AM

Challenge window ends: Not set

Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: Void

Challenges: 0 total, 0 open

If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.

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Resolution evidence

Status: Finalized

Platform evidence policy: Primary evidence is the ONS release page and associated datasets. Use the headline CPI 12-month rate as printed on release day; later revisions do not affect resolution unless ONS issues a formal correction notice same day.

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Evidence feed

No evidence has been submitted yet.

Market context

Resolves using the UK CPI 12-month inflation rate as published by the Office for National Statistics in “Consumer price inflation, UK: February 2026.” Use the headline CPI annual rate exactly as published.

Created: Feb 20, 2026, 12:56 AM

Closes: Mar 18, 2026, 6:00 AM

Expected resolution: Mar 18, 2026, 8:00 AM

Fee: 0.50%

Resolver stake cap: $1.00

Maker rake paid: $0.00

Tags: uk, cpi, inflation, ons, macro

Risk flags: datarevisionrisk, schedulechangepossible, timezonesensitivity, officialsourcelatency

Resolution details

Resolves YES if: The ONS-published CPI 12-month rate for February 2026 is less than or equal to 3.0%.

Resolves NO if: The ONS-published CPI 12-month rate for February 2026 is greater than 3.0%.

Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge

Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.

Evidence rules: Primary evidence is the ONS release page and associated datasets. Use the headline CPI 12-month rate as printed on release day; later revisions do not affect resolution unless ONS issues a formal correction notice same day.

Dispute rules: Only disputes citing the official ONS release or dataset page will be considered. Media reports or third-party aggregators are not grounds.

Official and supporting sources