← Back to marketsLandingCreate account

Public market

Will SpaceX complete an orbital mission from Cape Canaveral, Florida by May 30, 2026?

Status: Open for trading

Closes May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community

Price + timeline

YES probability • updated 3:10:04 AM

0%25%50%75%100%
May 1May 16May 31

Auto-refreshes every 4 seconds and after completed trades.

Market strip

Live implied odds

YES 50.0%

NO 50.0%

Pool shares0

YES shares0

NO shares0

Liquidity parameter100

Community resolve

YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00

Resolution window ends: Not set

Challenge window ends: Not set

Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: N/A

Challenges: 0 total, 0 open

If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.

Log in to resolveCreate account

Final outcome is only set by a human when there is a tie or at least one valid challenge.

Market context

Counts a Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy (or Starship, if applicable) launch from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station or Kennedy Space Center that achieves its planned orbital insertion (or planned translunar injection), as confirmed by SpaceX or NASA.

Created: May 1, 2026, 2:58 PM

Closes: May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM

Expected resolution: May 31, 2026, 6:00 PM

Fee: 0.50%

Resolver stake cap: $1.00

Maker rake paid: $0.00

Tags: spacex, falcon9, ksc, ccsfs, launch

Risk flags: launchscrub, partialfailure, definitionscope

Resolution details

Resolves YES if: A SpaceX launch from CCSFS or KSC on or before 2026-05-30 achieves its planned orbital insertion (or, if the plan is translunar injection, achieves that), confirmed by an official SpaceX update or NASA mission update.

Resolves NO if: No qualifying SpaceX orbital mission from Cape Canaveral occurs or mission fails to achieve its planned orbit/TLI by the deadline.

Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge

Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.

Evidence rules: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.

Dispute rules: Community vote window is fixed at 24 hours after close. Challenge window is fixed at 24 hours after provisional outcome.

Official and supporting sources