Price + timeline
YES probability • updated 1:48:01 PM
Feb 27Mar 15Mar 31
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Public market
Will the S&P 500 (price return, ticker SPX) official closing level exceed 5,200 on 2026-03-31 (New York time)?
Status: Finalized
Closes Mar 31, 2026, 8:00 PM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community
Market strip
Live implied odds
YES 50.0%
NO 50.0%
Pool shares0
YES shares0
NO shares0
Liquidity parameter100
Community resolve
YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00
Resolution window ends: Apr 1, 2026, 8:00 PM
Challenge window ends: Not set
Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: Void
Challenges: 0 total, 0 open
If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.
Resolution evidence
Status: Finalized
Platform evidence policy: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Evidence feed
No evidence has been submitted yet.
Market context
Resolves using the official S&P 500 Price Return Index (ticker: SPX) closing level published by S&P Dow Jones Indices for the trading day of 2026-03-31 (New York market day). “Exceed 5,200” means strictly greater than 5,200.00.
Tags: sp-500, spx, equities, quarter-end, index-close
Risk flags: datarevisionrisk, tradinghaltrisk, holidayschedulerisk
Resolution details
Resolves YES if: S&P DJI reports the SPX official closing level for 2026-03-31 as > 5,200.00.
Resolves NO if: S&P DJI reports the SPX official closing level for 2026-03-31 as ≤ 5,200.00, or if the session is canceled without an official close.
Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge
Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.
Evidence rules: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Dispute rules: Community vote window is fixed at 24 hours after close. Challenge window is fixed at 24 hours after provisional outcome.