Price + timeline
YES probability • updated 1:44:52 PM
Feb 27Mar 15Mar 31
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Public market
Will NOAA issue an El Niño or La Niña advisory by March 31, 2026?
Status: Finalized
Closes Mar 31, 2026, 11:59 PM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community
Market strip
Live implied odds
YES 50.0%
NO 50.0%
Pool shares0
YES shares0
NO shares0
Liquidity parameter100
Community resolve
YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00
Resolution window ends: Apr 1, 2026, 11:59 PM
Challenge window ends: Not set
Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: Void
Challenges: 0 total, 0 open
If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.
Resolution evidence
Status: Finalized
Platform evidence policy: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Evidence feed
No evidence has been submitted yet.
Market context
Resolves based on NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issuing an ENSO advisory indicating El Niño or La Niña conditions are present (as opposed to Watch/Outlook only).
Tags: noaa, enso, el-nio, la-nia, climate
Risk flags: terminologyambiguity
Resolution details
Resolves YES if: On or before 2026-03-31T23:59:59Z, CPC publishes an advisory explicitly stating that El Niño or La Niña conditions are present (e.g., “El Niño Advisory” or “La Niña Advisory”).
Resolves NO if: No such advisory indicating current El Niño or La Niña conditions is issued by the deadline.
Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge
Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.
Evidence rules: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Dispute rules: Community vote window is fixed at 24 hours after close. Challenge window is fixed at 24 hours after provisional outcome.
Official and supporting sources
- OFFICIALNOAA — Climate.gov ENSO
- OFFICIALNOAA CPC — ENSO Advisory