Price + timeline
YES probability • updated 3:10:02 AM
Apr 28May 15Jun 1
Auto-refreshes every 4 seconds and after completed trades.
Public market
Will the National Hurricane Center (NOAA) issue a Tropical Storm Watch or Tropical Storm Warning for at least one U.S. Gulf Coast county/parish on or before 2026-05-31 (UTC)?
Status: Open for trading
Closes May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community
Market strip
Live implied odds
YES 50.0%
NO 50.0%
Pool shares0
YES shares0
NO shares0
Liquidity parameter100
Community resolve
YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00
Resolution window ends: Not set
Challenge window ends: Not set
Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: N/A
Challenges: 0 total, 0 open
If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.
Final outcome is only set by a human when there is a tie or at least one valid challenge.
Market context
U.S. Gulf Coast counties/parishes are those along TX, LA, MS, AL, or FL that border the Gulf of Mexico. Yes if any such county/parish is placed under a Tropical Storm Watch or Tropical Storm Warning by NHC/NWS during the window, as reflected in official NHC advisories or the NWS U.S. Warnings map. Offshore‑only marine zones without a county/parish designation do not qualify.
Tags: nhc, noaa, tropical-storm, watch, gulf-coast
Risk flags: weatheruncertainty, timezone, definitionscope
Resolution details
Resolves YES if: An official NHC/NWS product shows at least one eligible Gulf Coast county/parish under a Tropical Storm Watch or Tropical Storm Warning on or before 2026‑05‑31 23:59:59 UTC.
Resolves NO if: No eligible county/parish is placed under a Tropical Storm Watch/Warning during the window.
Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge
Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.
Evidence rules: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Dispute rules: Community vote window is fixed at 24 hours after close. Challenge window is fixed at 24 hours after provisional outcome.