Price + timeline
YES probability • updated 1:49:27 PM
Feb 27Mar 15Mar 31
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Public market
Will Microsoft announce a ≥$5B acquisition of a publicly traded U.S. company by March 31, 2026?
Status: Finalized
Closes Mar 31, 2026, 11:59 PM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community
Market strip
Live implied odds
YES 50.0%
NO 50.0%
Pool shares0
YES shares0
NO shares0
Liquidity parameter100
Community resolve
YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00
Resolution window ends: Apr 1, 2026, 11:59 PM
Challenge window ends: Not set
Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: Void
Challenges: 0 total, 0 open
If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.
Resolution evidence
Status: Finalized
Platform evidence policy: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Evidence feed
No evidence has been submitted yet.
Market context
Targets a definitive agreement announced by Microsoft to acquire a U.S.-incorporated, U.S.-listed public company (NYSE or Nasdaq) with an announced deal value of at least $5 billion.
Tags: microsoft, ma, acquisition, nyse, nasdaq
Risk flags: definitionambiguity, dealtermschange
Resolution details
Resolves YES if: On or before 2026-03-31T23:59:59Z, Microsoft issues an official press release or files an SEC Form 8-K announcing a definitive agreement to acquire a company that (a) is incorporated in a U.S. state or D.C., (b) is publicly listed on NYSE or Nasdaq at announcement, and (c) has an announced equity or enterprise value of ≥$5,000,000,000 stated in the announcement or 8-K.
Resolves NO if: No such qualifying acquisition announcement is made by the deadline, or announced deal value is below $5B, not disclosed, or the target is not a U.S.-incorporated, U.S.-listed public company at announcement.
Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge
Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.
Evidence rules: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Dispute rules: Community vote window is fixed at 24 hours after close. Challenge window is fixed at 24 hours after provisional outcome.
Official and supporting sources
- OFFICIALMicrosoft — Press Releases
- SUPPORTINGNYSE/Nasdaq Listings (supporting)
- OFFICIALSEC — Microsoft (CIK 0000789019) Filings