Price + timeline
YES probability • updated 3:10:05 AM
Apr 28May 13May 28
Auto-refreshes every 4 seconds and after completed trades.
Public market
Will U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending 2026-05-23 be at or below 230,000 in the first Department of Labor release?
Status: Open for trading
Closes May 28, 2026, 12:30 PM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community
Market strip
Live implied odds
YES 50.0%
NO 50.0%
Pool shares0
YES shares0
NO shares0
Liquidity parameter100
Community resolve
YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00
Resolution window ends: Not set
Challenge window ends: Not set
Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: N/A
Challenges: 0 total, 0 open
If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.
Final outcome is only set by a human when there is a tie or at least one valid challenge.
Market context
Uses the first published U.S. Department of Labor (ETA) weekly Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report for the week ending May 23, 2026. Yes if the initial claims level reported in that first release is ≤ 230,000. Subsequent revisions are ignored.
Tags: jobless-claims, dol, labor-market, eta, macro
Risk flags: datarevision
Resolution details
Resolves YES if: The first DOL weekly claims news release shows initial claims for the week ending 2026‑05‑23 at or below 230,000.
Resolves NO if: The first DOL weekly claims news release shows a value above 230,000, or the release is not published.
Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge
Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.
Evidence rules: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.
Dispute rules: Community vote window is fixed at 24 hours after close. Challenge window is fixed at 24 hours after provisional outcome.