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Will SpaceX conduct an orbital-class Starship test launch by March 31, 2026?

Status: Finalized

Closes Mar 31, 2026, 11:59 PM • Fee 0.50% • Resolution Community

Price + timeline

YES probability • updated 1:48:39 PM

0%25%50%75%100%
Feb 27Mar 15Mar 31

Auto-refreshes every 4 seconds and after completed trades.

Market strip

Live implied odds

YES 50.0%

NO 50.0%

Pool shares0

YES shares0

NO shares0

Liquidity parameter100

Community resolve

YES stake $0.00 · NO stake $0.00

Resolution window ends: Apr 1, 2026, 11:59 PM

Challenge window ends: Not set

Provisional outcome: N/A · Current outcome: Void

Challenges: 0 total, 0 open

If there is no challenge, the initial community vote finalizes automatically after the challenge window.

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Resolution evidence

Status: Finalized

Platform evidence policy: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.

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Market context

Covers any integrated flight test where a stacked Starship atop Super Heavy achieves liftoff on or before March 31, 2026, from a U.S. site (e.g., Starbase, TX; LC-39A, FL). Achieving orbit is not required; liftoff of the stacked vehicle is sufficient.

Created: Feb 27, 2026, 12:47 AM

Closes: Mar 31, 2026, 11:59 PM

Expected resolution: Not specified

Fee: 0.50%

Resolver stake cap: $1.00

Maker rake paid: $0.00

Tags: spacex, starship, launch, faa, spaceflight

Risk flags: regulatorydelay, weather

Resolution details

Resolves YES if: A stacked Starship/Super Heavy achieves liftoff in an orbital-class integrated flight test (as characterized by SpaceX or FAA licensing documentation) on or before 2026-03-31T23:59:59Z.

Resolves NO if: No such integrated Starship/Super Heavy liftoff occurs by the deadline.

Resolver authority: Community provisional outcome + human adjudication only if tie/challenge

Vote/challenge windows: 24h vote + 24h challenge. See full community resolve flow.

Evidence rules: Evidence must rely on authentic source material. AI-generated media, edited/manipulated media, spoofed websites, and fabricated records are not allowed.

Dispute rules: Community vote window is fixed at 24 hours after close. Challenge window is fixed at 24 hours after provisional outcome.

Official and supporting sources